24 July 2006
Events unfolding in the Middle East are extremely worrying. The death toll from both sides is over 400, with no signs of the conflict abating, while those in Lebanon are caught in the middle. The wider fear is that this crisis could escalate and engulf more of the Middle East.

Countries keen to destabilise Israel backed Hezbollah's capture of Israeli soldiers and firing of many rockets indiscriminately into northern Israel. In its turn, Israel retaliated with customary determination, pledging no let up until Hezbollah's military capacity is heavily handicapped, if not destroyed. This may take some time: Hezbollah has fired at Israel only 10% of its 16,000 missiles, some of which may be capable of greater distances should Hezbollah broaden the conflict.

Blair's call for a proper peacekeeping force on the border with Israel and the Lebanon under a UN mandate would show international consensus for peace, but doubts remain over where the soldiers would come from and what they could do. Certainly our own armed forces are far too stretched in Iraq and Afghanistan to make any significant contribution.

Instead, diplomatic pressure should force both sides to step back from further aggression. The dangers of escalation are immense. Iran is more bellicose than in recent years. Tensions already within the region mean that this tinder box could once again ignite.

Hezbollah needs to hand back the Israeli soldiers and stop firing rockets into Israel. In turn, Israel needs to pull back from its commitment to destroy Hezbollah's military capability and to seek talks for peace. Any other option will only lead to further bloodshed