Last weekend, I visited Lithuania with some parliamentary colleagues, to see for myself the security situation in the country, given the threat from Russia to security of the Baltic states. 

While not adjoining Russia-proper, Lithuania does share a land border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic sea, as well as a long land border with Belarus – which was used as a launchpad for Russian troops trying to reach Kyiv during the full-scale invasion of 2022. From all those we spoke to in government and defence circles, there is a palpable sense of heightened risk in the country. 

In response to this security concern, Lithuania have increased their military spending to 2.75% of GDP, and are starting to consider the eligibility rate of their national service scheme, which currently sees a third of 18 year old young men serve in the Armed Forces for nine months’ military service. 

Here at home, unlike in the Baltics, I am concerned we may not be doing enough to prepare ourselves for future threats. Readers may recall that I spent four years as a Defence Minister, so take a keen interest, and have spoken in Parliament about how the government should reconsider its plans to reduce troop numbers in the British Army, given global instability. 

The Budget this month did confirm real terms growth in the Defence Budget in coming years, rising to some 2.25% of GDP by 2025, with an ambition to meet 2.5% as soon as economic conditions allow. But I believe the reality of Russia waging war in Europe means our political parties should set out in their coming manifestos a commitment to raise Defence spending to 3% of GDP during the next Parliament.

There is more to Defence spending than boots on the ground, ships at sea, or planes and drones in flight. At the request of the Secretary of State for Defence at the time, in 2018 I published a report into Defence’s contribution to UK prosperity, which highlighted not only the immense contribution of Defence to the economy across all of the UK, including in many of the most deprived areas, but also the skills base it sustains. When we invest in new technologies or platforms for UK Defence, we are shoring up our ability to secure our own defence in the future.

Now is the time for the UK to set out long term plans to keep our country safe. With Vladimir Putin’s rubber-stamp “election” for a fifth term confirmed this week, the threats we may face are not going away.