26 May 2008
The New Labour project was buried on the streets of Crewe & Nantwich this month. Gone was New Labour's previously successful appeal to a broad coalition of aspiration and social justice, instead Gordon Brown's campaign reverted to tribal class warfare - which backfired completely.

Gordon Brown says he will listen to the message he has been sent from Crewe. Hard for him to know what it is, since, lke Macavity, he was not there to talk to people on the doorstep.

I did go to Crewe and met many people who had voted Labour all their lives, but were utterly disillusioned with Gordon Brown and sufficiently encouraged by the changed Conservative party under David Cameron, to vote Conservative for the first time.

This direct switch in support gave the best by-election result for the Conservatives for over 30 years. It could not be blamed on Labour voters staying at home - turnout at 58.2% was only just below the 60% at the last General Election. There was also no sign of the stepping-stone switch to LibDems, whose share of the vote actually fell to 14.4%, nearly 5% down on 2005.

A 17.6% swing to capture a safe Labour seat in a mostly urban constituency north of Birmingham sends a signal to the whole country that the Conservatives are back in business.

This builds on the momentum of opinion polls over the last six months, the local election results at the start of this month and the election of the first Conservative as London mayor.

While we cannot be complacent and still need to present positive policies to command support from across traditional political boundaries, I sense Crewe & Nantwich will be seen as the turning point at which the prospect of a next Conservative government became credible in the eyes of the electorate.